A small and unscientific exploration of OSS license use

I was intrigued by an excellent (as usual) post by Matthew Aslett of 451 group, titled “On the fall and rise of the GNU GPL“, where Matthew muses on the impact of cloud computing and other factors in the decreasing role of the GPLv2 versus other type of licenses. Simon Phipps twittedyou only consider number of projects and not volume of deployed code. I have never found number of projects compelling” which is something that I absolutely believe is true: it is, however, quite difficult to imagine other possible ways to measure “impact” of a project. Do we have to add a weight related to usage? Then, given the large use of Linux, GNOME or KDE, OpenOffice, Firefox we would probably see a huge jump in the GPL and MPL percentages, at the cost of added uncertainty (as usage estimates are variable at best). As I am desperately try to avoid doing real work, I started using the Ohloh web site to extract slightly less than 100 projects (among the “active” ones, so there is already an initial preselection), along with the licensing and the number of committers for each project. My idea was to measure not only the number of projects, but how many people contributes to each, to see if this scenario gives different percentages. In a sense, the number of committers is a measure of “activity” or community interest in a project, and so my idea was to see if there was a difference between the percentages obtained with only the amount of projects listed under a license, and the number of committers using a license. The result is this:

license projects committers %projects %committers blackduck %
gpl2 49 15878 52.1% 62.9% 48.83
lgpl 8 2286 8.5% 9.1% 9.35
mit 6 1668 6.4% 6.6% 4
bsd 8 1150 8.5% 4.6% 6.26
gpl3 3 988 3.2% 3.9% 5.5
php 2 730 2.1% 2.9% 0.24
cddl 1 673 1.1% 2.7% 0.32
mpl 2 655 2.1% 2.6% 1.22
apache 10 557 10.6% 2.2% 4.02
boost 1 266 1.1% 1.1%
epl 2 241 2.1% 1.0% 0.46
python 1 133 1.1% 0.5%
cpl 1 6 1.1% 0.0% 0.56

The result is interesting: first of all, by looking in terms of contributors, the GPLv2 has an higher percentage of committers than that of projects; that is, there are more committers per project under the GPLv2 in respect to the normal share. The percentage of projects obtained is similar to that from BlackDuck (52.1% versus 48.83%), so I think that there is not too much bias in the choice of projects. The LGPL has more or less its fair share of committers, on a par with the number of projects and the results from BlackDuck. MIT is slightly higher, both in projects and commits, while the GPLv3 is under-represented – probably because the sample is too small, and in the project selection the “new” projects under the GPLv3 simply were not among the first 100 or so selected. A substantial difference exist for Apache-licensed projects, where the average number of committers seems smaller than its fair share; this may be an artefact of the project selected, or may be simply an effect of how Ohloh measures the active committers (I find strange that Boost has half of all the committers of all the Apache projects together!)

As I said, this is a little, unscientific experiment designed to explore what we can invent to better measure the “impact” of an OSS project. I would love to receive you comments and suggestions; on my side, I will try to leverage the FLOSSMETRICS database to try to find some numbers on a more consistent data sample.

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How to analyse an OSS business model – part three

Welcome to the third part of  our little analysis of OSS business models (first part here, second part here). It is heavily based on the Osterwalder model, and follows through the examination of our hypothetical business model reaching the “key resources” part. After all the theoretical parts, we will try to add a simple set of hands-on exercises and tutorials based on a more or less real case.

The argument of this part is “resources”. Key resources are the set of assets (material and immaterial) that are the basis of the company operations. There may be physical resources (a production plant for example), intellectual resources (previously developed source code), human resources (your developers), financial resources (capital in the bank, loans) and other immaterial assets (your company name as a recognizable mark, “good standing” in terms of how your customer see your products…)

In our OSS company example, at least part of the immaterial assets are shared and publicly available, that is they are non rival. In our model we have a company that provides under an open source license the community edition of the software, while provides an “enterprise edition” with additional stability tests, support and so on. It is not correct to say that just because the source code is publicly available it is not monetizable; on the contrary, especially when the code is wholly owned in terms of copyright assignments it is potentially a valuable asset (for some examples, look at JBoss or MySQL). Even when the code is cooperatively owned (as in a pure GPLv2 with multiple contributors, like Linux) the “default place” is valuable in itself, and it is the reason why so many companies try to make sure that their code is included in the main kernel line, thus reducing future integration efforts and sharing the maintenance activities. Other examples that are relevant for the OSS case are trademarks (that are sometimes vigorously defended), “brand name”, the external ecosystem of knowledge; for example, all the people that is capable of using and managing a complex OSS offering, creating a networked value that grows with the number of participants in the net. People becoming RedHat certified, for example, increases the value of the RedHat ecosystem other than their own.

One of the most important resource is human: the people working on your code, installing it, supporting it. Most of those people in the OSS environment are not part of your company, but are an extremely important asset on their own thanks to their capability of contributing back time and effort. In exchange, these resources need to be managed, and that’s why you need sometimes figures like “community managers” (an excellent example is my friend Stefano Maffulli, community manager extraordinaire at Funambol) because exactly as you have a financial officer to check your finance (another essential resource) you should have a community manager for… the community.

To properly analyse your key resources, we can extend the network model created for the channel analysis (the actor/action model) and extend it a little bit, including the missing pieces. For example, we mentioned that a potential customer may be interested in our product. Who makes it? Of course, as any good OSS company, you have some pieces coming from the outside (other OSS projects), part coded by your developers and part coming as contribution from external groups. All of them are resources: the other OSS projects are key resources themselves, simply obtained without immediate cost but managed by some developers that are themselves a key resources; your internally developed source code is another key resource, and if you have large scale contributions from the outside those should be considered resources too, maybe not “key” resources but important nevertheless.

The main concept is: a resource is “key” if without it your company would not be able to operate; and whenever you have a key resource you should have a person that manages it with a clearly defined process.

Next: cost structure!

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How to analyse an OSS business model – part two

(now available: part three)

Welcome to the second part of  our little analysis of OSS business models (first part here). It is based on the practical workshops that we do for companies, and so it does have a little “practical” feel to it; as for its theoretical background, it is heavily based on the Osterwalder model, that I found to be clear and comprehensible. It could be adapted easily to other conceptualizations and ontologies on how to describe a business model, if someone wants to use it in a teaching context.

In the first part of our analysis we discussed the basic background concepts and discussed the first two aspects: customer segments and value proposition. As I mentioned before, the analysis is iterative, and should be done collaboratively (for example, by all the people working in a specific group, or by all the managers). As an example of why it should be iterative, we discussed the value proposition: by identifying several different value propositions, we inherently created different customer segments, that receive different value from our hypothetical “widgets, inc.” and this fact can be leveraged by differentiated pricing or different adoption percentages (if the user perceives an higher value, the potential monetary payment may be higher or it may be encouraged in adoption). Let’s continue with channels!

Channels: under this name we can place all the different ways our company interacts with the outside world. A common mistake is to consider only “paid” transactions, while (especially for open source software) a substantial part of value comes from non-monetary interactions. Examples of channel purposes may be sales, distribution (both physical and intangible), company communication, brand channelling and so on. Most channels do have a simple definition (”sales”) while some are indirect and outside the control of the company, for example word of mouth. As any iPhone user can testimony, word of mouth is one of the most powerful information dissemination vehicle, because it is based upon trust in people you already know, and knows what you may be interested in; the flash mob success of some online games on Facebook is a slightly modified version of this principle.

In channel analysis, the various actors in a company try to imagine (or list) all the possible ways someone from the outside may interact with the company or its products. How can a potential customer discover about widgets, inc. products? What actions need to be performed to be able to evaluate or buy? To help in this mapping exercise you can perform what is called the actor/actions mapping. In this activity you start by listing all the actors that may be potentially interacting with you, your users (potential or not), people that may talk about your product… Everything. You start with a simple table, listing the actors and the possible actions that they may want to perform. As an example:

  1. unaware user: casually finds out about widgets, inc. through advertising, word of mouth, email campaign…
  2. potential user: wants more information. Can go to the web site, download from a mirror site, ask friends, look for reviews of the product….
  3. user: wants support. Contact through email, phone, web-based system, (if there is a physical part) may ask for replacement of something…
  4. user: wants a different contract. As before, can use email, phone, a CRM system…
  5. journalist: may ask for information to write a review…

The idea is to try to map all the roles, all the actions, and list all of them along with a sort of small description. Then, imagine yourself while performing the action listed within: who do you interact with? What are the precondition for performing such action? As for the customer segmentation, you repeat this exercise until nothing changes, and at this point you have a nice, complete map of all the in/out relationships of widgets, inc. with the outside world. At that point, you add a value to each channel, in terms of what does it costs to maintain it and what potential advantage brings to you. It is important to bring to the table all potential value (even negative value, or intangible) because for open source software a large part of the channel network will not be directly managed by widgets, inc. but will be handled by third parties that cannot be directly influenced. So, a very simple example: Acme corp. takes the community edition of our software, adds some bells and whistles and creates a nice service business based on that. Is it a value or not? It does have a positive value: enlarges the use base, may provide additional contributions; on the other hand, it competes directly in at least part of the user base. The decision on how to act (the strategy part) depends on what we want to optimize, and is something that is inherently dynamic; so as an example what is good in the beginning (when dissemination of information and adoption is more important than monetization) may not be optimal in a later stage.

This is one of the explanation for the change in licensing by OSS companies, after an initial stage designed to maximize recognition and community contributions; among the examples Wavemaker. As I wrote many times in the past, there is no “bad” or “good” license, the point is that the license should be adopted with a rationale; changing license (when possible) may increase certain factors and modify in general this global channel map for example by changing the percentage of developers that are adopting our software, thanks to a more permissive license. The various parameters of our model (percentage of enterprise/community, independent adopters that integrate our software within their products, return contributions…) are all dependent on many different external conditions that are a-priori imposed by how we manage the company. So, after the creation of our channel map, an important exercise is to try to estimate these parameters, or measure them if possible; this way, we can turn our model into a simulation, giving us insight and allowing us to experiment freely to find the best match for our needs. We will give an example of such parameters after all the pieces of our business model canvas are completed.

Next time: key resources!

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How to analyse an OSS business model – part one

(now available: part two and three)

One of the activity that I love is teaching: especially, within companies, helping them to assess their business model, and improve it. The first part is analysis; from the dictionary definition, “to separate (a material or abstract entity) into constituent parts or elements; determine the elements or essential features of”. This separation is fundamental – lots of wrong choices are made because some of the underlying choices are done without a clear understanding of what the company do, how it does it, what pays and for what. I will give a small example of such an analysis session, using as a model the Osterwalder business model canvas, that can be found here:
businessmodelcanvas
Let’s start with an imaginary company, “widgets inc.”, that uses the “community/enterprise” model, that is a fully open source edition (usually called “community”) and an enterprise edition, that is released under a different license, and includes things like support and additional features. There are lots of vendors using this model, and as such it should be easy for my readers to imagine their own, favourite  company listed.

The exercise is simple: we start by filling all the boxes, answering all the questions; the order that I suggest is: customer segments, value proposition,  channels, key resources, cost structure, revenue streams and the rest in any order. Let’s start!

Customer segments: who we are selling to, or interact with? Let’s start with the initial concept that not all customers do have a commercial relationship with the company. Some may be using the community edition, but may be users as well; the fact that they are not paying (yet) does not imply that they are of no value for “widgets inc.” The company may have a single segment or many segments; some offerings may be unstructured (which is always a bad thing, as it means that the effort for producing an offer cannot be automated) or simply everything may be dumped in a single bucket. The idea is to start from the differences; that is, different channels, different relationships, different profitability, different willingness to pay – every time you have a difference, it should be reflected in a segmentation of your customers. In a lot of situation this is perceived as a useless effort – especially if the company offers a single product. But separating customers across all the different variables allows for something similar to sensitivity analysis; for example, is the directly contacted customer more or less profitable than the one acquired through an indirect channel? How much do we lose by going through an intermediary?

So, let’s imagine that our “widgets inc.” is selling directly and through a reseller network. Resellers are providing additional reach, thanks to their own marketing efforts, so we have at least 3 different segments: users of the community edition, users of the enterprise edition that have a direct relationship with widgets inc. and users of the enterprise edition that are managed by a partner. There is a potential fourth segment, that is users of a potential “community enhanced” edition, for example a commercial offering by an independent vendor that enhanced the community edition and that is selling that in a form similar to our enterprise offering”. What can we say of these segments? The enterprise edition users are paying us (of course) and the profitability of each customer depends on the cost of servicing it (that changes if we follow it directly or through a partner); a reseller will require a percentage of revenues, but on the other hand it handles some of the support costs, and covered some of the expenses for getting the customer in the first place. The community users are not paying us, but can be leveraged in several ways: as a reference (for example GE is an Alfresco user, even if it was not paying for the enterprise edition, and this can be a reference with a commercial value) and by conversion. In fact, community users may become enterprise users, with a conversion ratio that is quite low (from 0.5% to 3%, depending on the kind of software) but that can become substantial if the user base is large enough. MySQL is a good example of such “conversion by numbers”. Sometimes segments are interlocked, in what are called “multisided markets”. An example is a merchant like eBay, that needs a large number of buyers and sellers to guarantee the fluidity of the market itself; it may charge sellers, buyers or both, charge only on trade performed, on publication or not at all (for example, using advertising to recover costs).

A common segmentation is also that based on size or revenue assumptions, so you get something like an SME offering and a large company (or administration) offering. Thanks to data from eBusinessWatch (an observatory of the European Commission) we know that the average precentage of revenues spent for ICT in companies is roughly the same for small and large companies, but this does also imply that smaller companies do have a smaller available budget, while larger companies may have a much longer (and costlier) procurement process.

Value proposition: the reason why someone would want to come to widgets inc. in the first place, because we solve a problem or satisfy a need. In our case, we have two separate propositions: one for the community edition and one for the enterprise edition. The community edition may solve a practical problem for companies (for example, document management, groupware, whatever), and thus gives a concrete value in exchange for the time necessary for the customer to install and adapt the product by themselves, including the potential risk if something does not work. The enterprise edition changes this proposition, by costing something (in monetary term) in exchange for an easier installation or better out-of-the-box experience, support, lower risk (knowing that it is possible to ask for support) and so on. The value proposition should be explicit (to give your customers, paying and non-paying, an idea of why it is useful to invest time or money in widgets inc. products), realistic (your company will not survive in the long term if the value advantage is not there at all) and approximately quantifiable. The value proposition may be different for different customer segments, for example a groupware system for a small company may not require to handle thousands of users; in general, the additional value of a feature or a structural property of your product is dependent on whether your customer is in position to use it, and this usually shows out in the fact that there may be different advertising for different segments, pushing only on those features that are relevant.

Next part: channels and resources. See you next time!

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The H264 codec problem, or: we should find a better way

I followed with great interest the intense debate on the initial HTML5 experiments of YouTube; given the prominent role of the video site in overall Flash usage, this has been heralded by some as a shining endorsement of HTML5, while others found its use of the H264 codec a sort of betrayal of the spirit of openness behind HTML. The reality is this has very little to do with Flash, and is related more to the now-ubiquitous role of video; despite the continuous progress of Flash in terms of technology, the browser plugin still is the blame for substantial slowness, jerkyness and overall difficulties, especially with HD video. A deeply embedded video engine is capable of better interaction with the rest of the browser paint/repaint engine, is better integrated with the internal event loop and in general can provide a better user experience at a lower CPU count.

The use of H264 video was probably due to a combination of factors: first of all the fact that Google is already an MPEG-LA licenser, meaning that the added cost will probably be very low, but more important is the overall greater maturity in terms of encoder and decoders. In fact, I believe that Theora (in its more recent implementations) can provide comparable quality to H264, as was shown by Greg Maxwell,  but the encoders still need to demonstrate that the excellent quality demonstrated in Greg’s encoding are maintained for a wide range of material; in this sense, I am quite sure that in the next few months the quality differential will become very small, up to the point where Theora and H264 are more or less technically equal.

The problem is all the material, already encoded as H264, that will need to be converted. And this means that it will never happens, as the cost of doing so is higher than the cost of buying a license for H264. What will happen is that, if Flash continues to be developed outside of the main browser code, more and more content providers will prefer to use HTML5 and the open standards because this way it will be easier to provide a better quality to end-users, increasing the number of potential viewers.

This does not means that Flash will go away (as much as I would love to), as most of the functionality that is offered  (outside of video) is not directly replicable in a sensible way through other means. Gordon is capable of render level 1 codes, Gnash has some level 7 codes, but in general there is no realistic way to ask for all the websites and content developers to throw out all their flash toolchests and start using something else. And there is no chance in hell that Adobe will open source their plugin (due to IPR issues, mainly). What HTML5 can do at the moment is still not sufficient to replace ActionScript and the advanced graphics features of Flash; my hope is that the advantage of being integrated directly in the browser will make it easier for developers to start targeting standards that do have a free implementation.

(Disclaimer: I have been part of ISO JTC1 for a few years, and have been working on video codecs on commercial projects from 1999 to 2005)

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ChromiumOS: a look in the code, and in the model (updated)

The release of Google ChromiumOS was an event waited by industry analysts with significant anticipation, and the overall impression after the announcement was that it went out as a fizzle, and not a bang. Most comments were centered on the obvious shortcomings of this first pre-alpha release, the significant limits in the supported hardware, the reliance on networking for everything (especially the initial login), the over-reliance on Google services. And all the comments are right-and, at the same time, based on a general misperception of what can be a potential competitor for the most visible part of the IT infrastructure, namely the traditional desktop PC. I had the opportunity to explore the code, build my version, and in general to evaluate the release in the context of the UTAUT model of technology adoption, and I believe that the approach is sound and sensible, and will change the market even if it fails.
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The first misconception is the idea that ChromiumOS was designed as a desktop OS competitor, despite the previous comments from Google spokespersons that the release would have been targeted towards a different market. The reality is that, even in ideal conditions and with technology prevalence (that is, the new technology is invariably and clearly superior to the old one) in presence of strong network effect and market prevalence NO alternative can supplant the incumbent in a short period of time, but can eventually grow its market in small percentage increments. This is especially true if the incumbent has pricing flexibility, that is it is possible to lower prices to fight back economic advantages, by moving the dead loss to some other market sector where there is less competition. This is what happened in the netbook market, with the possible loss of market space to Linux alternatives thwarted by lowering the pricing point of the offered operating system. Google makes with ChromiumOS a technological bet, that is a clear continuation of their overall strategy, and that has a serious potential to materialize.

It is not a desktop operating system. Desktop OS are full-featured, flexible, allow for unlimited installation of applications; on the other hand, ChromiumOS is a thin shell designed to run the Chrome browser as a single application. So, everyone expecting Google to save the idea of the Linux desktop has missed the fundamental point that it is not possible for anyone to fight for the desktop and win in a short amount of time, and without a massive monetary investment. But it is always possible to create a new market, and that’s exactly what Google is trying to do; similarly to when Apple launched the iPhone, very few believed that it would reach any substantial market share, forgetting that the iPhone was not a phone, but an execution platform – something different from all the previous smartphones, for which apps and web browsing were at most an afterthought.ChromiumOS resembles in this aspect Moblin (and shares much code with it) but in an even more radical way.

It requires little or no maintenance and support. What is the single highest source of costs for PCs? Management and support. OS patching and installation/reinstallation, fixing applications, installing and removing apps, checking for malware, identity management… the list can go on forever. The real innovation in ChromiumOS is the use of an upgradeable read-only code frame, clearly mimicking set-top boxes that can upgrade themselves OTA (over the air) for example from a satellite channel. ChromiumOS is capable of managing in a transparent and secure way this upgrade, handling securely interruptions and attacks. This, coupled with a totally encrypted local store, means that the hardware can be effectively thought as a purely ephemeral device that can substituted with limited configuration needs, and that large numbers of devices can be upgraded and managed without human intervention and in total security. Applications are embedded in web pages, and managed as web pages; so the maintenance and training requirements are limited.

It is not really tied into Google. Of course in this first release it heavily uses Google services for everything; but changing that is trivial. The authentication part is managed by a PAM module that can be easily swapped, and login completion (that actually turns your login name in a gmail account) is just a small modification of the SLiM login manager used by the OS to perform the initial login, and can be changed with a few lines of code. The same for the application list (the first icon on the top left of the screen), that is merely a hardwired URL – change it with your own portal address, and you get the same result without using Google. The only part that requires some work is the integration of Google SSO (through a complex cookie exchange mechanism); augmenting that with something like OpenSSO from Sun would not require more than a few days of work anyway.

It is not a SplashTop clone. There are several Linux-based instant-on environments, designed to be integrated inside of a flash BIOS; the most famous one is SplashTop, used in many motherboards and notebooks from Asus, Acer, HP, Sony and many others. The problem of this approach is that it is “fixed”: the image is difficult to update and upgrade, and this means that it rapidly loses appeal. ChromiumOS uses a trusted boot mechanism to ensure that upgrades are legitimate, but integrates it in a clean and smart way, making sure that the users will continuously be up to date.

It does require the net most of the time, but not always. The first login requires a working connection, but then the credentials are hashed and stored in a cache wallet, that allows to enter even in absence of a connection. If the pages allow for detached operation (using Gears, HTML5 persistent storage, or similar mechanisms) the system will work even without a connection. It is a stopgag solution, but is sensible: most of the time spent in desktop applications is centered on online services that are unusable without a connection, so it makes sense when considering the OS as something that is not competing in the same market as a traditional PC. Local, cached web applications may provide in the future more flexibility in this sense, but moch effort needs to be done to make it a worthwhile path. If we consider how people spend time on the PC, we can use the data from  Wakoopa, that ublished recently a measurement of time spent per application on Windows, OSX and Linux, and shows that for example on Windows the time is spent with:

  1. Firefox (28.71%)
  2. Internet Explorer (6.88%)
  3. Google Chrome (6.62%)
  4. Windows Explorer (5.92%)
  5. Windows Live Messenger (4.25%)
  6. Opera (2.97%)
  7. Microsoft Office Word (2.51%)
  8. Microsoft Office Outlook (2.22%)
  9. World of Warcraft (1.45%)
  10. Skype (1.30%)

Apart from Microsoft Word, no other application can be used without a connection; at the same time, most of the applications may be supplanted by future versions of web applications, if the evolution around HTML and related standards continue at the current pace. For games, up-and-coming standards like WebGL and O3D may provide this in a “clientless” way; this is similar to the Quake Live game, that at the moment requires an additional plug-in but that may be potentially recoded using only those standards.

It integrates digital identities better than anyone else. You login once-then, everything just works. Enterprise users with large scale SSO systems sometimes encounter this, but is not that common in consumer and smaller companies, and is a great productivity tool. It is just the beginning: more sophisticated user interfaces are needed (this one for example would be great), but many companies (including Microsoft) are making great progresses in this direction.

It introduces a different model. Desktop PC are flexible, adaptable, usable without connectivity, complex, fragile, difficult to manage. Thin (bitmap-based, like RDP or ICA)  clients are slightly easier to manage, require no support, require substantial infrastructure investments, cannot work detached, have marginally lower management costs. The model adopted by Google leverages the local computing power for rendering pages, reducing back-end costs; is simpler to manage, requires no support and can integrate through plug-ins (or browser functionalities) rich functionalities, like 3D (with WebGL and O3d) or native processing (through NaCL) but always within the context of web-delivered applications.

The future will be the final judge; after all, even if something is not successful directly, it may “seed” a future evolution that is capable of shaking the market substantially. The real impact of Negroponte’s OLPC was not the machine in itself (despite the boatloads of innovations contained within) but the re-framing of the netbook market; similarly, maybe it will be not ChromiumOS that will lead the change, but I believe that it is a bold statement – in fact, much bolder than the code that was released.

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See you at OMAT Rome!

I am grateful to Flavia Marzano for the invitation to being part of the roundtable on “applications and services for handling digital assets”, where I will present an overview of the tools and best practices for using open source in the context of Enterprise2.0. It is part of OMAT360, the oldest running conference on digital information management, started in 1990 and representing a wonderful opportunity to present the last results from FLOSSMETRICS.

The conference is free, with a registration page here, and an english presentation here. I would love to use the opportunity to meet anyone that may be interested in the topics, or in OSS in general.

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Why COMmunity+COMpany is a winning COMbination

There is an interesting debate, partially moved by Matt Asay, with sound responses from Matthew Aslett, that centered on the reasons for (or not) moving part of the core IP asset of an open source company towards an externally controlled group, like a consortia. Matthew rightly indicates that this is probably the future direction of OSS (the “4.0″ of his graph), and I tried to address this with a few friends on twitter- but 140 chars are too few. So, I will use this space to provide a small overview of my belief: the current structure based on open core is a temporary step in a more appropriate commercialization structure, that for efficiency reason should be composed of a commuity-managed (or at least, transparently managed) consortia that manages the “core” of what now is the open source part of open core offerings, and a purely proprietary company that provides the monetization services, may those be proprietary add-ons, paid services and so on.

Why? Because the current structure is not the most efficient to enable participation from outside groups- if you look at the various open core offerings, the majority of the code is developed from in-house developers, while on community-managed consortia the code may be originated by a single company, but is taken up by more entities. The best example is Eclipse: as recently measured, 25% of the committers work for IBM, with individuals accounting for 22%, and a large number of companies like Oracle, Borland, Actuate and many others with percentages that go from 1 to 7% in a collective, non-IBM collaboration.

Having then a pure proprietary company that sells services or add-ons also removes any possibility of misunderstanding about what is offered to the customer, and thus will make the need of a “OSS checklist” unnecessary. Of course, this means that the direction of the project is no longer in the hand of a single company, and this may be a problem for investors- that may want to have some form of exclusivity or guarantee of maintaining the control. But my impression is that there is only the illusion of control, because if there is a large enough payoff, forks will make the point moot (exactly like it happened with MySQL); and by relieving control, the company gets back a much enlarged community of developers and potential adopters.

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2020 FLOSS Roadmap, 2009 Version published

Having contributed to the new edition of the 2020 FLOSS roadmap, I am happy to forward the announcement relative to the main updates and changes of the 2020 FLOSS roadmap document. I am especially fond of the “FOSS is like a Forest” analogy, that in my opinion captures well the hidden dynamics that is created when many different projects create an effective synergy, that may be difficult to perceive for those that are not within the same “forest”.

For its first edition, Open World Forum had launched an initiative of prospective unique in the world: the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap (see 2008 version). This Roadmap is a projection of the influences that will affect FLOSS until 2020, with descriptions of all FLOSS-related trends as anticipated by an international workgroup of 40 contributors over this period of time and highlights 7 predictions and 8 recommendations. 2009 edition of Open World Forum gave place to an update of this Roadmap reflecting the evolutions noted during the last months (see OWF keynote presentation). According to Jean-Pierre Laisné, coordinator of 2020 FLOSS Roadmap and Bull Open Source Strategy: “For the first edition of the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap, we had the ambition to bring to the debate a new lighting thanks to an introspective and prospective vision. This second edition demonstrates that not only this ambition is reached but that the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap is actually a guide describing the paths towards a knowledge economy and society based on intrinsic values of FLOSS.

About 2009 version (full printable version available here)

So far, so good: Contributors to the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap estimate that their projections are still relevant. The technological trends envisioned – including the use of FLOSS for virtualization, micro-blogging and social networking – have been confirmed. Contributors consider that their predictions about Cloud Computing may have to be revised, due to accelerating adoption of the concepts by the market. The number of mature FLOSS projects addressing all technological and organizational aspects of Cloud Computing is confirming the importance of FLOSS in this area. Actually, the future of true Open Clouds will mainly depend on convergence towards a common definition of ‘openness’ and ‘open services’.

Open Cloud Tribune: Following the various discussions and controversies around the topic “FLOSS and Cloud Computing”, this opinion column aims to nourish the debates on this issue by freely publishing the various opinions and points of view. 2009’s article questions about the impact of Cloud Computing on employment in IT.

Contradictory evolutions: While significant progress was observed in line with 2020 FLOSS Roadmap, the 2009 Synthesis highlights contradictory evolutions: the penetration of FLOSS continues, but at political level there is still some blocking. In spite of recognition from ‘intellectuals’. the alliance between security and proprietary has been reinforced, and has delayed the evolution of lawful environments. In terms of public policies, progress is variable. Except in Brazil, United Kingdom and the Netherlands, who have made notable moves, no other major stimulus for FLOSS has appeared on the radar. The 2009 Synthesis is questioning why governments are still reluctant to adopt a more voluntary ‘FLOSS attitude’. Because FLOSS supports new concepts of ’society’ and supports the links between technology and solidarity, it should be taken into account in public policies.

Two new issues: Considering what has been published in 2008, two new issues have emerged, which will need to be explored in the coming months: proprietary hardware platforms, which may slow the development of FLOSS , and proprietary data, which may create critical lock-ins even when software is free.

The global economic crisis: While the global crisis may have had a negative impact on services based businesses and services vendors specializing in FLOSS, it has proved to be an opportunity for most FLOSS vendors, who have seen their business grow significantly in 2009. When it comes to Cloud-based businesses, the facts tend to show a massive migration of applications in the coming months. Impressive growth in terms of hosting is paving the way for these migrations.

Free software and financial system: this new theme of the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap makes its appearance in the version 2009 in order to take into account the role which FLOSS can hold in a system which currently is the target of many reflexions.

Sun/Oracle: The acquisition of Sun by Oracle is seen by contributors to the 2009 Synthesis as a major event, with the potential risk that it will significantly redefine the FLOSS landscape. But while the number of major IT players is decreasing, the number of small and medium-size companies focused around FLOSS is growing rapidly. This movement is structured around technology communities and business activities, with some of the business models involved being hybrid ones.

FLOSS is like forests: The 2009 Synthesis puts forward this analogy to make it easier to understand the complexity of FLOSS through the use of a simple and rich image. Like forests and their canopies – which play host to a rich bio-diversity and diverse ecosystems – FLOSS is diverse, with multiple layers and branches both in term of technology and creation of wealth. Like a forest, FLOSS provides vital oxygen to industry. Like forests, which have brought both health and wealth throughout human history, FLOSS plays an important role in the transformation of society. Having accepted this analogy, contributors to the Roadmap subsequently identified different kind of forests: ‘old-growth forests’ or ‘primary forests’, which are pure community-based FLOSS projects such as Linux; ‘cultivated forests’, which are the professional and business-oriented projects such as Jboss and MySQL; and ‘FLOSS tree nurseries’, which are communities such as Apache, OW2 and Eclipse. And finally the ‘IKEAs’ of FLOSS are companies such as Red Hat and Google.

Ego-altruism: The 2009 Synthesis insists on the need to encourage FLOSS users to contribute to FLOSS, not for altruistic reasons, but rather for egoistical ones. It literally recommends users to only help when it benefits themselves. Thanks to FLOSS, public sector bodies, NGOs, companies, citizens, etc. have full, free and fair access to technologies enabling them to communicate on a global level. To make sure that they will always have access to these powerful tools, they have to support and participate in the sustainability of FLOSS.

New Recommendation: To reinforce these ideas, the 2020 FLOSS Roadmap in its 2009 Synthesis added to the existing list of recommendations:
Acknowledge the intrinsic value of FLOSS infrastructure for essential applications as a public knowledge asset (or ‘as knowledge commons’), and consider new means to ensure its sustainable development

Contact: http://www.2020flossroadmap.org/contact/

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All the possible errors, in a single slide.

I found this slide deck, from a very large and visible software company (that I will not name, leaving it as an the exercise for the reader); I believe that it was created to provide a clear response to many popular misconceptions on open source software. Unfortunately, it seems to collect in a single slide most of the myths and false assumptions that I have already mentioned in our past work within FLOSSMETRICS.

badslide

First of all, “zero cost” is something that may be true or not- it simply is not the defining attribute of open source software. At the same time, saying that proprietary software has “lower ongoing cost” is not overall true (and I have tons of independent confirmation of that), claiming that proprietary has more features is (as before) not universally true, saying that proprietary software maintains backward compatibility generated substantial laughter across the poor people here in the office that has to provide support to our commercial customers, claiming that proprietary is “more secure” recalled the recent attack against DNS claiming that it was poorly protected freeware.

Should I continue? Open standards, anyone? And the last one, implying that only proprietary software is based on managed development? Any commercial OSS vendor would happily dismiss this claim as untrue. Commitment on support? I believe that my fellow three readers would not encountering any difficulties in thinking about proprietary products that got bought and buried underground, or that simply got scrapped altogether.

Ah, I would happily send my guide to this fellow slide author, but I believe that probably this would not change this company views a single bit.

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