Archive for January 26th, 2010
I followed with great interest the intense debate on the initial HTML5 experiments of YouTube; given the prominent role of the video site in overall Flash usage, this has been heralded by some as a shining endorsement of HTML5, while others found its use of the H264 codec a sort of betrayal of the spirit of openness behind HTML. The reality is this has very little to do with Flash, and is related more to the now-ubiquitous role of video; despite the continuous progress of Flash in terms of technology, the browser plugin still is the blame for substantial slowness, jerkyness and overall difficulties, especially with HD video. A deeply embedded video engine is capable of better interaction with the rest of the browser paint/repaint engine, is better integrated with the internal event loop and in general can provide a better user experience at a lower CPU count.
The use of H264 video was probably due to a combination of factors: first of all the fact that Google is already an MPEG-LA licenser, meaning that the added cost will probably be very low, but more important is the overall greater maturity in terms of encoder and decoders. In fact, I believe that Theora (in its more recent implementations) can provide comparable quality to H264, as was shown by Greg Maxwell, but the encoders still need to demonstrate that the excellent quality demonstrated in Greg’s encoding are maintained for a wide range of material; in this sense, I am quite sure that in the next few months the quality differential will become very small, up to the point where Theora and H264 are more or less technically equal.
The problem is all the material, already encoded as H264, that will need to be converted. And this means that it will never happens, as the cost of doing so is higher than the cost of buying a license for H264. What will happen is that, if Flash continues to be developed outside of the main browser code, more and more content providers will prefer to use HTML5 and the open standards because this way it will be easier to provide a better quality to end-users, increasing the number of potential viewers.
This does not means that Flash will go away (as much as I would love to), as most of the functionality that is offered (outside of video) is not directly replicable in a sensible way through other means. Gordon is capable of render level 1 codes, Gnash has some level 7 codes, but in general there is no realistic way to ask for all the websites and content developers to throw out all their flash toolchests and start using something else. And there is no chance in hell that Adobe will open source their plugin (due to IPR issues, mainly). What HTML5 can do at the moment is still not sufficient to replace ActionScript and the advanced graphics features of Flash; my hope is that the advantage of being integrated directly in the browser will make it easier for developers to start targeting standards that do have a free implementation.
(Disclaimer: I have been part of ISO JTC1 for a few years, and have been working on video codecs on commercial projects from 1999 to 2005)